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California carbon market's August auction results see slight rebound, but show need for post-2020 climate action
The results released today from California and Quebec’s latest cap-and-trade auction show a slight rebound in demand from results seen in May, but still demonstrate the need for a continued commitment on ambitious climate action beyond 2020. The results were released minutes after members of the California Assembly voted on ambitious 2030 targets; the final legislative votes are expected tomorrow.
The August 16 auction offered more than 86 million current vintage allowances (available for 2016 or later compliance) and sold just over 30 million. Approximately 10 million future allowances were offered that will not be available for use until 2019 or later; 769,000 of those allowances were sold.
These auction results represent a slight increase in demand from the May auction, where approximately 10% of the current and future vintage allowances that were offered sold. More allowances were also offered at this auction since allowances consigned by utility participants that were not sold in May were offered again at this auction. The number of allowances offered for sale by utilities meant that the only state controlled allowances that sold were a small number of future vintage allowances.
California state controlled allowances that were not sold in August will not be offered again until two auctions clear above the floor price, representing a temporary tightening of the cap and a way for the program to self-adjust to temporary decreases in demand.
What changed and what is the same since the May auctionAfter May’s auction we pointed to several major factors that contributed to low demand: secondary market allowances were available for purchase below the floor price; regulated emissions have been below the cap allowing businesses to take a wait-and-see approach to purchasing allowances in advance of a pending appeal challenging the cap-and-trade auctions in the court of appeal; and need for increased certainty about the post-2020 cap-and-trade program.
Here’s what affected the August auction results:
- Secondary market prices have increased to right around the price of the current auction floor. This is likely the main factor contributing to the August auction’s slightly higher sales.
- There have been no further developments on the litigation as parties wait for the court to announce an oral argument schedule.
- There has been some movement on California’s effort to provide post-2020 certainty but not definitive action. In July, California's Air Resources Board released proposed amendments to set rules and a cap-and-trade carbon budget in-line with achieving a 40 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2030. Final agency action is not expected until spring of 2017. The California Legislature is also considering a package of bills that would cement the 2030 target, currently in executive order, into statute. Assembly members voted today on climate targets and we will see whether legislative members will fulfill the will of over two-thirds of the California electorate by passing these targets.
California’s package of climate programs, including cap and trade, must first be evaluated based on whether emissions are going down – and the latest data from ARB in June showed that emissions do continue to decline. Selling out an auction and raising a set amount of revenue does not equate to overall success for the cap and trade program.
That said, once climate proceeds are in the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF), spending them wisely to reduce emissions and benefit communities, especially disadvantaged communities, is a metric of program success. To date, about 1.4 billion dollars have been languishing in the GGRF, not creating benefits, and resulting in consequences for real Californians.
In addition to passing climate targets, Legislators should continue to act on proposals like the one Pro Tem Kevin de Leon has put forward to spend existing climate dollars this session.
California's new spending proposals benefit communities and the environment, and highlight need for long-term climate policy
By Tim O'Connor
Cropped image via Flickr/ mikeslife
California drivers, communities, and businesses have endured degraded roads, unending traffic, choking pollution, and limited transit options for years. As the population continues to grow, so too will the problems of the transportation sector (and many other sectors) unless major investments are made.
Given the profound need to clean-up California’s infrastructure, Tuesday’s $390 million expenditure award by the California State Transportation Agency (CalSTA) and yesterday’s proposal by the State Senate to spend $1.2 billion of available dollars generated by California’s cap-and-trade auctions are important steps in reaching communities that need these upgrades most. What these critical spending plans also clearly demonstrate is that cementing 2030 pollution reduction targets into statute ensures continued investment in reducing emissions and benefiting communities.
The value of long term climate policyIt’s been no secret that a political debate is underway in Sacramento over setting long-term climate pollution targets for California. Why? Setting long- term policy will support the state’s low-carbon, prosperous economy. This process is important not just for climate change, but to ensure growth and stability in the business and investment climate that will enable our economy to flourish.
Long-term climate policy – including cap and trade and a suite of other measures – aimed at cutting pollution has been a boon to the state over the past decade, allowing the economy to flourish, resulting in massive venture capital investment, innovative products, and reduced pollution.
Within the cap-and-trade program, auctioning emissions credits has become an integral way to make the program work, though the purpose has never been to raise and maximize revenue. As a result, within the existing landscape, the auctioning of permits has allowed for additional environmental improvements through investments such as the 14 different transit projects just announced. Similarly, and as outlined by the State Senate’s proposal, the cap-and-trade program can drive myriad other investments that cut climate pollution, such as traffic flow improvements, low- carbon vehicles, energy efficiency, urban greening, and sustainable community development.
When completed, the 14 projects funded by the CalSTA will benefit nearly every major urban area in the state, transcending political boundaries, bridging economic divides, cutting air pollution, growing jobs, and reducing congestion. And, with 30 million cars on the road consuming gas at some of the highest prices in the nation, improved transit and transportation systems simply give drivers more options – saving money and creating better mobility in the long run.
The massive need to invest in California and cut carbonUnfortunately, California has a far greater need than what this $390 million can meet (the California Transit Association projects a total need of nearly $175 billion), or what the $1.2 billion State Senate proposal would deliver. Fortunately, policies like cap-and-trade work to cut pollution through a declining cap on carbon and a price on carbon, resulting in innovation and investments in regulated businesses. As permits are auctioned, targeted investments of proceeds generated through those auctions can also produce air quality benefits while leveraging private capital and inspiring innovation.
Over the next couple weeks, Sacramento lawmakers can positively impact the long-term certainty of California climate policy and its ability to drive pollution reductions and ensure vital investments in areas like transit and improved transportation systems. The current expenditure plans and proposals — along with several billion dollars that have already been allocated — illustrate how programs such as cap and trade create real investment options that benefit people, communities, and the environment across the state.