Climate 411

Cherry blossoms: a microcosm of the global climate crisis

Cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C. reached peak bloom extremely early this year. Photo by Ilissa Ocko

(This blog was co-authored by EDF Climate Scientist Fiona Lo)

Washington D.C.’s famous cherry blossoms are once again blooming earlier than expected.  

In fact, this year’s peak bloom occurred two and a half weeks earlier than the average over the past 100 years, due to near-record warm temperatures in March. 

This ranks as the second earliest peak bloom on record. Even the cherry blossom bud cycle occurred faster than any other year in the last two decades.  

So what is happening and why is this significant?  

Here we break down what you need to know about cherry blossoms and climate change. 

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Posted in Agriculture, Basic Science of Global Warming, Extreme Weather, News, Science / Leave a comment

How to act fast and smart (and where to move more cautiously) on nature-based climate solutions

Aerial photo of the Ecuadorian Amazon

Aerial photo of the Ecuadorian Amazon. Leslie Von Pless/EDF

This post is authored by Mark Moroge, Vice President of Natural Climate Solutions at Environmental Defense Fund.

We know that nature-based climate solutions are among our greatest assets when it comes to tackling climate change. Conserving, restoring and improving the management of nature – alongside reductions in new fossil fuel use – can provide at least 20% of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C.

We also know that we need much greater investment in nature to achieve its climate change mitigation potential: the world must close a $4.1 trillion financing gap in nature by 2050 to achieve climate goals.

But with a wide variety of potential solutions on offer, and with carbon markets for financing these solutions under intense scrutiny, it is essential that credit purchases prioritize those solutions that have strong scientific backing. Otherwise, we risk undermining trust in the potential of these markets to deliver climate results.

That’s why a new scientific paper published this week in Nature Climate Change is so important. Here we explain the findings and provide two key lessons for advancing nature-based climate solutions.

Scientific confidence in different solutions varies

The study, carried out by 27 experts from 11 institutions, including the Environmental Defense Fund, The Nature Conservancy and Columbia University, brings a deep scientific assessment of 43 nature-based climate solutions that have been implemented or proposed for use in carbon markets.

Through an extensive literature review and expert elicitation process, it found a wide range in scientific confidence across, and within, the different solutions.

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Posted in Carbon Markets, Forest protection, Science / Comments are closed

Resolving scientific uncertainties in nature-based climate solutions: Location, location, location

Drone shot of mangrove trees off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.

Drone shot of mangrove trees off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. Carlos Aguilera / EDF Mexico

The world needs nature-based climate solutions (NbCS). These approaches use conservation, restoration, and management of natural and agricultural systems to retain existing, and sequester additional, carbon while reducing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. NbCS have been suggested to meet 20-30% of the world’s climate goals. Correspondingly, nature-based actions are included in the national commitments of 63% (104 of 168) of the signatories of the Paris Agreement.

However, defining the climate impact of different solutions requires accurate scientific measurement and accounting of greenhouse gas mitigation, including how long that benefit lasts. Where we lack accurate measurements and estimates of future durability, we cannot yet rely on NbCS to meet our climate goals.

Assessment of the science on NbCS
Environmental Defense Fund recently worked with experts in academia and other conservation and research institutions to assess the scientific confidence in more than 40 NbCS that have been proposed. The results of that inquiry are both optimistic and sobering.

The four most frequently credited NbCS by the four major carbon credit registries have high scientific confidence – tropical and temperate forest avoided conversion or degradation and reforestation. The confidence of the scientific community in those NbCS supports investing in these as climate solutions and demonstrates that we can develop sufficient understanding of process, measurement, and accounting methods necessary to meet high quality crediting requirements.

However, the experts concluded that 90% (39/42) of the proposed NbCS assessed in the study currently have insufficient scientific evidence for having climate impact we can count on. Within that 90% are NbCS like avoided conversion and degradation of systems as different as mangroves and boreal forests (see below for why).

Promisingly, the experts do have confidence that we can remedy this situation: focused research over the next five years could resolve many of the remaining questions for two-thirds of those pathways. Given that some, like agroforestry, tropical peatland conservation, and biochar additions are also estimated to have large-scale climate impacts, this study provides a roadmap for prioritizing research efforts.

The importance of location
Every NbCS is different, and so are the specific uncertainties and research needs. Prediction of how natural systems may change as the climate changes – affecting their carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions – is inherently uncertain. We are better at modeling some systems (like tropical forests) than others (like seagrass beds). But all NbCS pathways have something in common – location matters.

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Posted in Basic Science of Global Warming, Carbon Markets, Forest protection, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, News, Oceans, Plants & Animals, Science / Comments are closed

Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement: What is High Integrity and Why It Matters

Under the Paris Agreement, Article 6.2 allows countries to exchange emissions reductions and removals through bilateral agreements—country to country. Despite stalled progress on final details for Article 6.2 at COP28, the mechanism is in operation with guardrails that push countries toward high-integrity programs. New bilateral agreements continue to emerge under the mechanism and mobilize needed capital.

In a webinar hosted by Browning Environmental Communications and Environmental Defense Fund (available to stream here), we discussed the key elements of high integrity under Article 6.2, and why it’s critical for effective climate action under the rule.

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Posted in Carbon Markets, Paris Agreement / Tagged | Comments are closed

Auction results and budget decisions emphasize importance of investments from Washington state’s Climate Commitment Act

This blog was co-authored by Janet Zamudio, Western States Climate Policy Intern

The last week has been eventful in Washington, seeing the end of legislative session last Thursday and the first quarterly cap-and-invest auction of 2024, which posted results today. With the legislative session wrapped up and budgets passed, we now know what additional spending lawmakers plan to do with the revenue generated by these cap-and-invest auctions thanks to the supplemental budget passed last week. And with the results from the first auction of 2024 now in the books, it seems the Evergreen State will continue to see significant revenue from this program to reinvest in communities, clean energy projects and climate resilience. There’s a lot to unpack, so let’s start with the auction results:

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Posted in California, Carbon Markets, Cities and states, Economics, Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Health, Policy / Comments are closed

Clean heat standards: an effective climate policy for the thermal sector

Downtown Boston. Photo: Emmanuel Huybrechts via Wikimedia Commons

This post was co-authored by Chris Neme, Co-Founder and Principal of Energy Futures Group

The concept of a Clean Heat Standard (CHS) is gaining traction in multiple jurisdictions as a way to drive larger, faster reductions in the thermal sector’s greenhouse gas emissions. At least ten U.S. states are considering the policy, with Colorado and Vermont having enacted legislation and Massachusetts and Maryland considering a CHS regulation.

A new report commissioned by Environmental Defense Fund and prepared by Energy Futures Group provides an overview of key design elements that can be used for a CHS, as well as a look at how four states are approaching these elements in their own CHS development process.

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Posted in Cities and states, Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, News, Partners for Change, Policy / Comments are closed