Profits Up, Prospects Down
If you just heard a mic drop, that was the sound of former NRG CEO David Crane after he finished tearing into coal. His article clearly lays out the losing economics of coal plants, which “employ technology that Wall Street deems obsolete.” Indeed, the very same technology whose rising costs FirstEnergy is desperately trying to pin on their captive customers.
But coal is still a leading fuel source worth investing in, right, Crane?
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“Wall Street, emphatically, has turned its back on coal. As recently as five years ago, the top five coal producers in the United States had a combined market cap in excess of $45 billion; two years ago, that number had dropped to $18 billion; and this week, the aggregate market cap of those five coal companies is significantly less than $2 billion. The value of the nation's coal-fired power plants, while more difficult to isolate and then quantify, also is almost certainly at a historical low.”
Crane also notes how the glut of cheap natural gas leaves coal plant owners clinging to a system that just doesn’t make financial sense anymore. So why are they (cough, FirstEnergy) holding on? “Wishful thinking that skyrocketing natural gas prices are just around the corner” is one potential reason offered. Funny enough, projected rising natural gas prices is one of FirstEnergy’s main arguments for why it needs a bailout – even though its price forecasting has always been more political than accurate.
Then again, you could argue the subsidies are entirely political in nature. The article highlights exactly how coal plants are surviving in regulated electricity markets: “because public service commissions allow them to and reward them.” That’s why utilities in Ohio’s deregulated market are turning to politics, rather than economics, to save their plants.
For the time being you won't see these trends reflected in FirstEnergy's 2015 earnings report, which included net profits of $578 million - a whopping 93 percent increase from 2014.
Regardless, Crane succinctly sums up the whole situation: “Maybe it is time for a different approach.” Translation: Even if FirstEnergy wins this battle, they’re fighting a losing war.
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