Bracing for Climate Change in the Constitution State

Posted: 02-Feb-2004; Updated: 27-Aug-2007

Flooding from increased storm surges along its coastal areas ... a rise in ozone and corresponding increase in cases of asthma ... a spreading of vector-borne viruses such as Lyme disease ... a loss of wetlands and damage to coastal cities and infrastructure ... higher temperatures that could match the current climate of Southern states: these are some of the significant adverse impacts of climate change, based on projected future accelerated temperature rise and sea-level change, that will likely affect the environment, public health and economy of the state of Connecticut, as outlined in a new report by Environmental Defense.

Bracing for Climate Change in the Constitution State: What Connecticut Could Face shows the serious challenges of the future due to global warming. Sadly, the state contributes greatly to its own problem - Connecticut emits more of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide through the burning of fossil fuels than Venezuela and Chile combined. But forward-thinking policies and existing technology can significantly reduce the state's (and the nation's) greenhouse gas emissions and prevent risking the health and safety of people and the environment.

Environmental Defense president Fred Krupp says the report "paints a stark picture of the future of Connecticut's health, economy, and environment if no action is taken to reduce emissions of global warming pollutants."

Among the effects that are projected to occur in the coming decades:

Temperatures Rising: The mean annual temperature increase in Connecticut (increasing 1.7°F every 100 years, and in some areas nearly double that, at 3.5°F per 100 years) is greater than the increase in the rest of New England. Analysis from the New England Regional Assessment projected temperatures to rise 2.5°F by 2030 and 4-9° by 2100. A 4° increase would make Hartford's climate similar to Philadelphia's; a 9° increase would make Hartford seem more like Raleigh, N.C. Higher summer temperatures could mean higher numbers of heat-related illnesses and deaths (particularly among elderly populations and low-income groups, the most vulnerable to heat stress), and an increase in insect-borne pathogens like Lyme disease and West Nile Virus.
Lobster Fisheries Floundering: Four years ago, lobsters in Long island Sound started dying in record numbers. By 2003, lobster populations were down 70 percent from 1998 levels. Although many factors (such as pesticide runoff) likely have played a role in the lobster die-off, most scientists concur that warmer water temperature was one of the leading causes. (Laboratory studies show that water temperatures above 75-85°F are lethal to lobsters.) With the value of the Long Island Sound lobster fishery falling from $42 million in 1998 to $10 million in 2002, the economic impacts have been devastating, plunging many lobstermen into financial ruin.
Increased Flooding: Connecticut's current rate of sea level rise (0.10 inch per year in Bridgeport) exceeds the global mean trend of sea level rise, and this increasing rate projected for the next century will result in significantly higher sea levels for the coast (5.1 to 8.3 inches by 2020, 8.1 to 16.7 inches by 2050, and 11.2 to 35.3 inches by 2080). The resulting rise in the height of storm surges will mean a Category 1 hurricane could produce storm surges similar to what we experience now with less frequent but more severe Category 3 hurricane. Important transportation infrastructure at risk for flooding includes Amtrak rail lines and stations, the Tweed-New Haven Airport and parts of the Connecticut Turnpike (I-95). Also vulnerable are the University of Bridgeport, the Navy Reserve Center, sewage disposal plants and the oil tanks at Johnson Creek.
Lost Wetlands: The effects of flooding and sea-level rise could mean the disappearance of a large percentage of Connecticut's coastal wetlands, which are already stressed by development and other human activities.
Worsened Air Quality, Increased Asthma Rates: While Connecticut has made significant strides in improving air quality, high concentrations of ground-level ozone (smog) still threaten the health of residents. (In 2001, Connecticut ranked third in the nation, trailing only California and Texas, for the highest peak concentrations of ozone.) In this region, a uniform increase in temperature of 7°F would result in an almost 20% increase in ozone smog concentrations. Because ozone exacerbates asthma symptoms and triggers attacks, Connecticut's asthma rate - which surpasses the United States average, with more than 200,000 adults and 75,000 children affected across the state - could get worse. This would carry a tremendous financial as well as health burden - for example, in 1998, asthma treatment cost the state's residents approximately $134 million.

The state legislature will be considering a Clean Cars bill this session, a common-sense bill that asks Connecticut to join New Jersey, Massachusetts and New York in adopting more stringent motor vehicle standards, to clean up greenhouse gas pollution and unhealthy smog that are by-products of cars and trucks. "Transportation produces 39% of Connecticut's greenhouse gas pollution," said Environmental Defense project manager Millie Chu Baird, "so passing the Connecticut Clean Cars bill will reduce the global warming threat and protect the health of Connecticut's citizens."

The Report

Click on the links below to download or view the report in pdf file format (Adobe Reader required).

Bracing for Climate Change in the Constitution State, complete report (575 Kb)
Executive Summary (299 Kb)
Read the Hartford Courant Op-Ed by Environmental Defense president Fred Krupp (2/06/04)
Press Release: Study Shows Global Warming Already Impacting Connecticut (2/02/04)

Authors:

Vivien Gornitz, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University
Steve Hale, Institute for Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire
Kate Larsen, Environmental Defense
Naomi Levine, Environmental Defense
Cynthia Rosenzweig, Senior Scientist, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University
Lauren Sacks, Environmental Defense

Project Manager
Millie Chu Baird, Environmental Defense